AGA Estimates $29.5B in Legal NFL Wagering, But Minimal Growth
Friday, September 11, 2026 at 03:00PM By Barry Janoff
September 9, 2026: The 2026 NFL season is about to begin, and you can wager that people are anxious to wager on games.
Americans are estimated to legally wager $29.5 billion on the 2026 NFL season through U.S. regulated commercial sportsbooks, according to the American Gaming Assn.
However, the projection indicates “no growth in the legal, state-regulated betting handle compared to last season's $29.4 billion handle,” up just 0.3% from last season's figure based on revenue reports from state gaming regulators.
By comparison, some $1.76 billion was wagered on Super Bowl LX this past February with U.S. sportsbooks, an almost 27% year-over-year increase, according to AGA.
“Millions of Americans are continuing to choose legal, state-regulated sportsbooks to amplify the excitement of the games,” according to AGA, “At the same time, ‘prediction markets’ are rapidly expanding backdoor sports betting offerings across all 50 states and Washington, DC.”
"We're excited for the NFL season to kickoff, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams,” AGA president and CEO Bill Miller, said via the organization. “Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting had seen tremendous growth.
"But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled."
AGA claims that “these platforms are operating outside the regulatory frameworks governing sports betting in the 40 jurisdictions where it is legal, while also bypassing the laws prohibiting sports betting in the 11 states that have chosen not to legalize it.”
"These "prediction market" platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment," Miller said.
"Kalshi and other ‘prediction markets’ say they don't need to follow state- and tribal- regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides."
AGA said that since the start of last year's football season, “legal commercial sports betting handle growth has slowed significantly. This comes as the legal market continues to mature, and as prediction markets expand their sports offerings nationwide.
"We're excited for the NFL season to kickoff, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams."
“Sports bets make up about 80% of Kalshi's volume, which includes an estimated $5.1 billion in volume from users between the ages 18-20, which is below the legal age in 35-of-40 jurisdictions where sports betting is legal.”
According to AGA, “The legal, regulated gaming industry supports 1.8 million jobs and generates roughly $18 billion a year in sports betting tax revenue for important community projects such as education, infrastructure, and public services. By contrast, ‘prediction markets’ like Kalshi and Polymarket are estimated to have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025.”
As people prepare for the NFL season, AGA said it “encourages fans to understand the difference between licensed sportsbooks, ‘”prediction markets,’” and other illegal operators and to wager only with legal, state- and tribal-regulated operators.”
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