NBA GM Survey: Celtics Repeat As Champs, Gilgeous-Alexander Wins MVP
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 03:59PM By Barry Janoff
October 8, 2024: The last team to repeat as NBA champions were the Golden State Warriors in 2016-17 and 2017-18.
The Boston Celtics will end that mini-drought when they successfully defend their title this season, according to the just-released 23rd annual NBA GM Survey.
According to 83% of respondents, the Celtics will win the 19th championship in team history, followed by a far-distant Oklahoma City Thunder (13%) and Dallas Mavericks (3%).
In the race for league MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City) — who finished second last season to Nikola Jokic — garnered 40% of the vote while Luka Doncic (Dallas) was second (30%).
Tied for third were Jokic (Denver Nuggets), Joel Embiid (Philadelphia Sixers) — who have won a combined four of the last MVP awards — and Jayson Tatum (Celtics).
As for incoming players, Reed Sheppard (Houston Rockets) out of Kentucky and the third overall pick in the 2024 Draft was named by 50% of respondents to win the 2024-25 Rookie of the Year.
He was followed by Zach Edey (Memphis Grizzlies, 30%) and Stephon Castle (San Antonio Spurs, 13%).
Last’s season’s Rookie of the Year, Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio) was named by an overwhelming 77% as the player who, if they were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be?
Beyond the players themselves, regarding rules (including play, schedule, Draft/Lottery, playoff format, roster construction) that most need to change, the GMs said “Roster Construction: Apron rules/trade math too restrictive or should be indexed to team’s market (20%); and the Schedule: fewer games and/or back-to-backs (17%).
Before winning this upcoming season’s championship, the Celtics were also picked to win the Eastern Conference, followed in the standings by the New York Knicks, Philadelphia, Cleveland Cavaliers, Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers.
In the Western Conference, GMs see the finishing order as Oklahoma City, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver, Dallas, Phoenix Suns, Memphis, New Orleans Pelicans and Golden State.
The team that made the best overall moves this off-season was the Thunder (37%), with additions that included Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein.
They were followed by the 76ers (33%) — which signed Paul George — and the Knicks (20%), which added Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns.
GMs named the top point guards in the NBA as Luka Doncic, (37%) and Gilgeous-Alexander (30%).
Best shooting guards are Anthony Edwards (Minnesota, 33%) and Devin Booker (Phoenix, 23%).
Best small forward is Jayson Tatum (Celtics, 47%), best power forward is Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee, 77%) and best center in the NBA is Jokic (87%).
GMs responded to 50 different questions about the best teams, players, coaches and off-season moves.
They were not permitted to vote for their own team or personnel.
Percentages are based on the pool of respondents to that particular question, rather than all 30 GMs.
• Which team will win the 2025 NBA Finals?
1. Boston Celtics 83%
2. Oklahoma City Thunder 13%
3. Dallas Mavericks 3%
• Last year: Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets 33%
• Who will win the 2024-25 Kia MVP?
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City 40%
2. Luka Doncic, Dallas 30%
T-3. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 7%
T-3. Nikola Jokic, Denver 7%
T-3. Jayson Tatum, Boston 7%
• Also receiving votes: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee; Jaylen Brown, Boston; Anthony Edwards, Minnesota
• Last year: Nikola Jokic 43%
• Who will win the 2024-25 Rookie of the Year?
1. Reed Sheppard, Houston 50%
2. Zach Edey, Memphis 30%
3. Stephon Castle, San Antonio 13%
• Also receiving votes: Ron Holland II, Detroit; Alex Sarr, Washington
• Last year: Victor Wembanyama 50%
• If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be?
1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio 77%
T-2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City 10%
T-2. Nikola Jokic, Denver 10%
4. Luka Doncic, Dallas 3%
• Last year: Nikola Jokic 33%
• Who is the best point guard in the NBA?
1. Luka Doncic, Dallas 37%
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City 30%
• Who is the best shooting guard in the NBA?
1. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota 33%
2. Devin Booker, Phoenix 23%
• Who is the best small forward in the NBA?
1. Jayson Tatum, Boston 47%
T-2. Luka Doncic, Dallas 17%
T-2. Kevin Durant, Phoenix 17%
T-2. LeBron James, L.A. Lakers 17%
• Who is the best power forward in the NBA?
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee 77%
• Who is the best center in the NBA?
1. Nikola Jokic, Denver 87%
• Which player is most likely to have a breakout season in 2024-25?
1. Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City s13%
T-2. Evan Mobley, Cleveland 10%
T-2. Ja Morant, Memphis 10%
T-2. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio 10%
T-5. Paolo Banchero, Orlando 7%
T-5. Cade Cunningham, Detroit 7%
T-5. Brandon Miller, Charlotte 7%
• Which team made the best overall moves this off-season?
1. Oklahoma City Thunder 37%
2. Philadelphia 76ers 33%
3. New York Knicks 20%
• Also receiving votes: Brooklyn Nets, Orlando Magic, Sacramento Kings
• Last year: Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks 23%
• Which one player acquisition will make the biggest impact?
1. Paul George, Philadelphia 60%
T-2. Mikal Bridges, New York 13%
T-2. Karl-Anthony Towns, New York 13%
4. Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City 7%
• Also receiving votes: DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento; Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City
• Last year: Damian Lillard 47%
• Which team will be most improved in 2024-25?
1. Memphis Grizzlies 67%
2. San Antonio Spurs 13%
3. Philadelphia 76ers 7%
• Also receiving votes: Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns
• Last year: Oklahoma City Thunder 30%
• What was the most surprising move of the off-season?
1. Karl-Anthony Towns to New York 27%
2. Paul George to Philadelphia 23%
3. DeMar DeRozan to Sacramento 17%
4. Mikal Bridges to New York 10%
5. Zaccharie Risacher drafted No. 1 7%
• Also receiving votes: Deni Avdija to Portland; Tyus Jones to Phoenix, Caleb Martin to Philadelphia, Dejounte Murray to New Orleans, Klay Thompson to Dallas
• Last year: Holiday/Lillard trade 43%
• Who is the best head coach in the NBA?
1. Erik Spoelstra, Miami 69%
2. Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City 17%
3. Steve Kerr, Golden State 7%
• Also receiving votes: Mike Budenholzer, Phoenix; Chris Finch, Minnesota
• Last year: Erik Spoelstra 73%
• Which team is the most fun to watch?
1. Indiana Pacers 37%
2. Oklahoma City Thunder 27%
T-3. Denver Nuggets 10%
T-3. Golden State Warriors 10%
5. Boston Celtics 7%
• Also receiving votes: Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns
• Last year: Denver Nuggets – 30%
• Which team has the best home-court advantage?
1. Denver Nuggets 47%
2. Oklahoma City Thunder 17%
T-3. Boston Celtics 13%
T-3. New York Knicks 13%
5. Utah Jazz 7%
6. Sacramento Kings 3%
• Last year: Denver Nuggets 37%
• Which player would you want taking a shot with the game on the line?
1. Stephen Curry, Golden State 40%
2. Kevin Durant, Phoenix 23%
3. Luka Doncic, Dallas 10%
T-4. Nikola Jokic, Denver 7%
T-4. Damian Lillard, Milwaukee 7%
• Also receiving votes: DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City; Kyrie Irving, Dallas; Jamal Murray, Denver
• Last year: Stephen Curry 37%
• What rule (regarding play, schedule, Draft/Lottery, playoff format, roster construction, etc.) most needs to change?
1. Roster construction: Apron rules/trade math too restrictive or should be indexed to team’s market 20%
2. Schedule: Fewer games and/or back-to-backs 17%
T-3. Game flow: Reduce stoppages and replay reviews, or change to G-League, 1-free-throw rule 13%
T-3. Playoff format: Seed 1-16 or let top seeds choose opponents 13%
T-5. Free agency before the Draft 7%
T-5. Return to a one-day Draft 7%
• Also receiving votes: Add third round to the Draft, Draft Lottery format, Expand All-Star rosters to 15 players, Elam ending, Fouls on lobs should be shooting fouls, Playoff eligibility for two-way players, Remove divisions
See the full GM Survey here.
Back to Home Page